PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 21AI-powered EPL predictions for week 21.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Llama 3 70b-3.3%GPT-5-3.8%Gemini 2.5 Flash-11.4%Claude 4 Sonnet-20%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llama 3 70b | 8 | 38% | -3.3% |
| GPT-5 | 10 | 30% | -3.8% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 8 | 13% | -11.4% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 5 | 0% | -20% |
West Ham
1–2
Nottingham ForestFTOdds (Bet365):3.20|3.40|2.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"West Ham vs Nottingham Forest presents a three-way split with our model showing equal 35% probabilities for both home and away outcomes. The market is pricing Forest at 2."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$7@3.20
-$7
"West Ham are priced at 3.20 (31."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$8@3.40
-$8
"Our model identifies a significant discrepancy in the West Ham vs Nottingham Forest match, with our 35% probability for a Draw comfortably exceeding the market's implied 29.4% from the 3."
Llama 3 70b
BETDRAW
$9@3.40
-$9
"Our model suggests a 30.1% probability for a draw, which is higher than the 29."
Bournemouth
3–2
TottenhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.10|3.60|3.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@3.30
-$25
"Tottenham's away form creates an interesting discrepancy here, with our model showing 42.5% win probability against the market's 30% implied odds at 3."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$13@3.30
-$13
"Tottenham are 3.30 (30."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$14@3.30
-$14
"For Bournemouth vs Tottenham, our model projects a 40% win probability for Tottenham, which is a strong edge against the bookmaker's implied 30.3% at 3."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$14@3.30
-$14
"Tottenham's strong away record and Bournemouth's poor home form give the visitors an edge, reflected in our 34.7% win probability."
Fulham
2–1
ChelseaFTOdds (Bet365):3.30|3.60|2.10
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Chelsea away looks tempting with our 45% win probability versus the market's 48% implied at 2.1 odds, but the numbers are too close for comfort."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$6@2.10
-$6
"Chelsea at 2.10 (47."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$10@3.60
-$10
"Our analysis for Fulham vs Chelsea points to a strong value play on the Draw, with our 35% probability significantly higher than the market's implied 27.8% at 3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Despite Fulham's recent form and home record, our model finds no significant edge in any outcome against Chelsea. The market has priced the home win and draw accurately, so we're choosing to skip this match and avoid betting into an efficient market."
Manchester City
1–1
BrightonFTOdds (Bet365):1.40|5.25|6.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Manchester City are overwhelming favorites with our 65% win probability, but the market has priced them at 71% implied odds (1.4), leaving no mathematical edge to exploit."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$5@5.25
+$19
"City are 1.40 (71."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@1.40
-$15
"Our model shows Manchester City with an 80% win probability against Brighton, offering a slight but clear edge over the market's implied 71.4% at 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$16@1.40
-$16
"Manchester City's strong recent form and home record give them a significant advantage over Brighton, reflected in our 64.2% win probability."
Everton
1–1
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.75|3.50|5.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$20@1.75
-$20
"Everton's home advantage is being undervalued by the market, with our 52% probability creating a solid edge against the 57% implied odds at 1.75."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$16@1.75
-$16
"Everton are 1.75 (57."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$25@1.75
-$25
"In the Everton vs Wolves fixture, our model indicates a substantial edge on the Home win, with a 68% probability far surpassing the market's implied 57.1% at 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETDRAW
$8@3.50
+$21
"Our predictor highlights a stalemate, with both teams showing poor recent form. The 30."
Crystal Palace
0–0
Aston VillaFTOdds (Bet365):3.10|3.30|2.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@2.30
-$25
"Aston Villa's recent surge (4 wins in 5) creates excellent value at 2.3 odds, with our 50% win probability significantly higher than the market's 43% implied."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$15@2.30
-$15
"Villa are 2.30 (43."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$20@2.30
-$20
"For Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, our model identifies a significant value opportunity on the Away win, with our 55% probability comfortably above the market's implied 43.5% at 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$12@2.30
-$12
"Aston Villa's strong recent form and decent away record give them an edge over struggling Crystal Palace, reflected in our 37.4% win probability."
Brentford
3–0
SunderlandFTOdds (Bet365):1.83|3.60|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Brentford home looks fairly priced with our 52% probability closely matching the market's 55% implied odds at 1.83."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$11@1.83
+$9
"Brentford at 1.83 (54."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Despite Brentford's strong home record and a decent confidence score, our model finds no significant positive expected value across any outcome in this match. While the Draw showed a minuscule edge, it was too marginal to warrant a bet."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$13@1.83
+$11
"Brentford's strong home record and recent form give them an edge over Sunderland, reflected in our 53.2% win probability."
Burnley
2–2
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):4.75|4.00|1.70
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@1.70
-$15
"Manchester United away presents decent value with our 60% win probability against the market's 59% implied at 1.7 odds."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$7@1.70
-$7
"United at 1.70 (58."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$2@4.00
+$6
"Our model suggests a value play on the Draw in the Burnley vs Manchester United fixture, with our 28% probability exceeding the market's implied 25% at 4.00 odds."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Despite Manchester United's superior league standing and away form, our model finds no significant edge in any outcome against Burnley. The market has priced the away win accurately, so we're choosing to skip this match and avoid betting into an efficient market."
Newcastle
4–3
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|3.80|5.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Newcastle's home fortress (6-2-2) creates a compelling narrative against Leeds' dire away form (1-3-6), but the market has priced this efficiently at 1.67 (60% implied)."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$11@1.67
+$7
"Newcastle are 1.67 (59."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our model indicates a very slight positive EV on the Draw for Newcastle vs Leeds, but the confidence note strongly favors a Newcastle home win. This creates a conflict between the statistical edge and the qualitative assessment of the match dynamics."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$12@1.67
+$8
"Newcastle's recent form and home record give them an edge over Leeds, reflected in our 51.2% win probability."
Arsenal
0–0
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):1.60|4.10|5.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@1.60
-$15
"Arsenal's perfect home fortress (9-1-0) is being undervalued by the market, with our 45% probability creating a small but meaningful edge against the 63% implied odds at 1.6."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$9@5.00
-$9
"Liverpool are 5.00 (20% implied) with our model at 28%, making this the standout misprice—fair closer to 3."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$5@1.60
-$5
"For the Arsenal vs Liverpool clash, our model assigns a 65% win probability to Arsenal, which is a modest but clear advantage over the market's implied 62.5% at 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$15@1.60
-$15
"Arsenal's strong recent form and home record give them an edge over Liverpool, reflected in our 56.2% win probability."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 21 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 21. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.