PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 20AI-powered EPL predictions for week 20.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
GPT-5-5.4%Llama 3 70b-7.6%Claude 4 Sonnet-10%Gemini 2.5 Flash-10%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5 | 10 | 20% | -5.4% |
| Llama 3 70b | 7 | 29% | -7.6% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 5 | 20% | -10% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 5 | 20% | -10% |
Aston Villa
3–1
Nottingham ForestFTOdds (Bet365):1.80|3.70|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$12@1.80
+$10
"Our predictor highlights Aston Villa's strong recent form and home record, giving them a significant advantage over Nottingham Forest. The market is pricing the home win at 1."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$13@1.80
+$10
"Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest shows our model at 59% home versus market implied ~55.6% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$25@1.80
+$20
"Aston Villa at 1.8 odds represents excellent value against our 62% win probability, which suggests fair odds closer to 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$25@1.80
+$20
"Our model identifies a significant edge on Aston Villa at home, with a 72% win probability against the market's implied 55.5% (1."
Wolves
3–0
West HamFTOdds (Bet365):2.50|3.30|2.88
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$17@2.88
-$17
"Wolves' poor recent form and home record suggest West Ham have the upper hand. Our model sees a 40% probability for an away win, which is significantly higher than the 34."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$10@3.30
-$10
"Wolves vs West Ham is priced with draw at 3.30 (implied ~30."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@2.88
-$15
"West Ham's 45% win probability creates a modest edge against the 2.88 odds (34."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$20@2.88
-$20
"The market appears to be underestimating West Ham's chances, pricing them at 2.88 while our model assigns a 50% win probability, implying a fair price closer to 2."
Brighton
2–0
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.50|4.33|6.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Despite Brighton's slight edge at home, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome against Burnley. The market has priced the home win and draw accurately, reflecting the probabilities accurately."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$8@4.33
-$8
"Brighton vs Burnley has draw odds 4.33 (implied ~23."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Despite Brighton's strong 62% home win probability and excellent form indicators, the market has priced them efficiently at 1.5 odds (66."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Despite Brighton being strong favorites, our analysis reveals no discernible positive expected value across any outcome in this fixture. The bookmakers have priced the home win efficiently, leaving no exploitable edge for our strategy."
Bournemouth
2–3
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):6.00|4.75|1.48
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETDRAW
$9@4.75
-$9
"Arsenal's strong recent form and superior league standing give them an edge, but Bournemouth's decent home record and Arsenal's inconsistent away form make a draw or upset possible. Our model sees a 34."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$15@1.48
+$7
"Bournemouth vs Arsenal has our away win at 58% versus 1.48 odds implying ~67."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Arsenal's 55% away win probability aligns almost perfectly with the market's 1.48 odds (67."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"While Arsenal are clear favorites, our model indicates that the market has priced their win quite accurately, offering no significant positive expected value. Although there was a minor edge on the draw, the overall confidence for an Arsenal win, coupled with the small EV, makes it an unappealing bet."
Leeds
1–1
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):2.70|3.30|2.62
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Manchester United's stronger away record and recent form give them an edge, but Leeds' home advantage keeps the draw and home win in play. However, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome, as the market has priced the probabilities accurately."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$11@2.62
-$11
"Leeds vs Manchester United has our away at 38% against 2.62 (implied ~38."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@2.62
-$20
"Manchester United's 44.5% win probability creates a solid edge against the 2."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our model identified a modest positive expected value on the draw for this fixture, suggesting the market might be slightly underpricing a stalemate. However, with a moderate confidence score and stronger opportunities available elsewhere, this edge isn't compelling enough for a significant allocation."
Newcastle
2–0
Crystal PalaceFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|4.00|5.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$15@1.67
+$10
"Newcastle's strong home record and recent form give them an edge over Crystal Palace. Our model sees a 51."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$12@5.00
-$12
"Newcastle vs Crystal Palace shows away at 25% vs odds 5.00 (implied 20%), a clear overlay; our fair is 4."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Newcastle's 45% home win probability falls short of the 1.67 odds (59."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our analysis shows a small positive expected value on both the draw and the away win for Crystal Palace, indicating the market might be slightly overvaluing Newcastle's home advantage. However, with a moderate confidence score and more substantial edges identified in other matches, this fixture does not meet our threshold for a disciplined bet."
Everton
2–4
BrentfordFTOdds (Bet365):2.38|3.25|3.10
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Everton's inconsistent form and Brentford's struggles on the road make a draw a plausible outcome. However, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome, as the market has priced the probabilities accurately."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$7@2.38
-$7
"Everton vs Brentford has home at 44% with odds 2.38 (implied ~42."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Everton's 45% home win probability fails to create positive expected value against the 2.38 odds (42% implied), while the low confidence score reflects the tight nature of this fixture."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@2.38
-$15
"Our model highlights a significant discrepancy in the Everton home win odds, assigning a 55% probability compared to the market's implied 42% at 2.38."
Tottenham
1–1
SunderlandFTOdds (Bet365):1.80|3.60|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$14@1.80
-$14
"Tottenham's strong home record and Sunderland's inconsistent away form give the hosts an edge. Our model sees a 53."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$5@4.50
-$5
"Tottenham vs Sunderland shows away at 25% vs 4.50 (implied 22."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@1.80
-$15
"Tottenham's 65% win probability creates a substantial edge against the 1.8 odds (55."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$15@4.50
-$15
"The market is significantly overvaluing Tottenham's home chances, with our model assigning a 35% probability for a Sunderland away win, far exceeding the implied 22.2% from the 4."
Fulham
2–2
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):3.80|3.75|1.91
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$18@1.91
-$18
"Liverpool's strong recent form and away record give them an edge, but Fulham's home form is decent. Our model sees a 36."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$9@1.91
-$9
"Fulham vs Liverpool prices the away at 1.91 (implied ~52."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@1.91
-$20
"Liverpool's 55% away win probability offers decent value against the 1.91 odds (52."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our model found only marginal positive expected value on the home and draw outcomes, with Liverpool's away win being priced efficiently by the market. Given the low confidence score and the very small edges, this match does not present a strong enough opportunity for a profitable bet."
Manchester City
1–1
ChelseaFTOdds (Bet365):1.62|4.33|4.75
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$15@1.62
-$15
"Manchester City's strong recent form and home record give them an edge over Chelsea. Our model sees a 62."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$9@1.62
-$9
"Manchester City vs Chelsea has home at 59% with odds 1.62 (implied ~61."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Manchester City's 55% home win probability falls well short of the 1.62 odds (61."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$20@1.62
-$20
"Our model identifies Manchester City as a strong value play at home, with a 75% win probability against the market's implied 61.7% at 1."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 20 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 20. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.