PL
Premier League
•2025-2026•Week 18AI-powered EPL predictions for week 18.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Matches:10
Total AI bets:30
Best AI this week:Llama 3 70b+0.29
Manchester United
1–0
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):2.50|3.60|2.62
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.13@2.50
+0.20
H 44% | D 28% | A 28%→ 2-1Our model has United at 44% while the price 2.50 implies 40%, leaving a modest positive edge on the hosts. Draw and away are both fairly priced or worse (implied 27.8% vs 28% each), so concentration is on the home side. Confidence is middling at 0.53, so I’ll keep the stake measured. The value is there but not huge, so a light 0.13 units fits the risk profile.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.15@2.50
+0.22
H 45% | D 28% | A 27%→ 2-1Manchester United's home win probability at 45% significantly exceeds the implied odds of 40% (1/2.5), creating a solid 5 percentage point edge. The confidence score of 0.6 provides reasonable backing for this assessment, though it's not overwhelming. Given this is a competitive Premier League fixture between two well-matched sides, the bookmaker appears to have slightly undervalued United's home advantage. I'm taking a modest 0.15 stake to capture this value while maintaining conservative bankroll management.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.13@2.50
+0.19
H 53% | D 28% | A 18%→ 2-1Manchester United's probability of winning is higher than the implied odds suggest, offering a small but attractive edge. The confidence score is decent, and the matchup favors the home side, so I'm willing to take a moderate stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.15@2.50
+0.22
H 52% | D 28% | A 20%→ 2-1The model identifies a significant edge on Manchester United winning at home, with their 52% probability being considerably higher than the implied odds of 40% from the bookmaker's price of 2.5. With a decent confidence score of 0.68, this represents a strong positive expected value. I'm placing a moderate stake of 0.15 units to capitalize on this perceived mispricing while managing overall bankroll risk.
Nottingham Forest
1–2
Manchester CityFTOdds (Bet365):5.25|4.33|1.55
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETDRAW
0.08@4.33
-0.08
H 17% | D 22% | A 61%→ 0-2City are fairly priced or even a touch short: model 61% vs 1.55 implying 64.5% is negative EV, while Forest at 17% vs 5.25 (19.0% implied) also offers no edge. The draw at 22% vs 4.33 (23.1% implied) is slightly thin, but among options it's the least negative and the confidence is strong at 0.68, suggesting the game state variance could favor a stalemate. Given the marginal nature, I’ll nibble with a small 0.08 stake to maintain exposure without overcommitting.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 15% | D 25% | A 60%→ 1-2While Manchester City are heavily favored away to Nottingham Forest, the model probabilities align closely with the bookmaker's assessment across all outcomes. The away win probability of 60% matches almost perfectly with the implied odds of 64.5% (1/1.55), leaving minimal edge to exploit. Despite the strong 0.7 confidence score, there's no clear value angle here that justifies risking bankroll units. I'm passing on this match to preserve capital for better opportunities elsewhere on the slate.
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
0.19@1.55
+0.10
H 22% | D 26% | A 52%→ 1-3Manchester City's away win probability is significantly higher than the market implies, presenting a strong value opportunity. The confidence score is high, and the visitors' quality should shine through, so I'm taking a larger stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.02@1.55
+0.01
H 10% | D 15% | A 75%→ 0-2Despite Manchester City being strong favorites, the model still finds a positive expected value on the away win, with a 75% probability against the implied odds of 64.5%. This edge is supported by a high confidence score of 0.75. Given the lower odds and to maintain bankroll discipline, I'm allocating a small, tactical stake of 0.02 units to capture this value.
LiverpoolvsWolves
Sat 15:00
Odds (Bet365):1.25|6.50|9.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETDRAW
0.06@6.50
H 63% | D 22% | A 15%→ 2-1Liverpool at 63% vs 1.25 (80% implied) is poor value, and Wolves at 15% vs 9.5 (10.5% implied) looks generous but still negative EV versus our model. The draw is 22% vs 6.5 (15.4% implied), which is strong positive value. Even with Liverpool’s favoritism, the price on the stalemate is too big to ignore; staking small at 0.06 respects the underdog nature of the outcome while capturing the edge.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 70% | D 20% | A 10%→ 2-0Liverpool's dominance is reflected in both the model (70% home win probability) and the bookmaker's pricing (80% implied odds at 1.25). The market has this match correctly priced with Liverpool as overwhelming favorites against Wolves, leaving no meaningful edge to exploit. While the confidence score is decent at 0.6, betting on such heavy chalk without value would be poor bankroll management. I'm avoiding this obvious favorite where the books have done their homework properly.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.16@1.25
H 54% | D 29% | A 17%→ 2-1Liverpool's home win probability is higher than the market suggests, offering a decent edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Reds' strong home form should continue, so I'm taking a reasonable stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 80% | D 15% | A 5%→ 3-0The bookmaker's odds for a Liverpool win perfectly align with our model's probability of 80%, leaving no discernible positive expected value. With no clear edge and a high confidence score simply confirming the market's accuracy, forcing a bet here would be speculative. I'm skipping this match to preserve bankroll for more advantageous opportunities.
ArsenalvsBrighton
Sat 15:00
Odds (Bet365):1.38|5.00|7.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETDRAW
0.09@5.00
H 61% | D 23% | A 16%→ 2-1Arsenal are 61% vs 1.38 (72.5% implied) so the home win is overpriced; Brighton at 16% vs 7.5 (13.3% implied) is closer but still not a clear edge. The draw at 23% vs 5.0 (20%) is positive EV and aligns with a competitive setup. Confidence is decent at 0.60, so I’ll take the value angle with a modest 0.09 stake to account for variance.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 62% | D 23% | A 15%→ 2-0Arsenal hosting Brighton presents another case where the model and market are singing in harmony. The Gunners' 62% home win probability falls slightly short of the 72.5% implied by the 1.38 odds, suggesting the bookmaker may even have this priced more aggressively than our model suggests. With such a heavily favored outcome and no clear edge, even the strong 0.75 confidence score can't justify a bet. I'm steering clear of this chalk play where value appears to favor the house.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.22@1.38
H 64% | D 25% | A 11%→ 2-0Arsenal's home win probability is significantly higher than the market implies, presenting a strong value opportunity. The confidence score is high, and the Gunners' quality should dominate, so I'm taking a larger stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 72% | D 18% | A 10%→ 2-1There's no positive expected value to be found in this match, as the bookmaker's odds closely reflect the model's probabilities across all outcomes. The home win for Arsenal, while highly probable, is priced efficiently by the market. With no clear mispricing, I'm opting to skip this fixture and save the bankroll for clearer value spots.
BurnleyvsEverton
Sat 15:00
Odds (Bet365):4.20|3.40|1.91
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.12@4.20
H 33% | D 28% | A 39%→ 1-2Model gives Burnley 33% while 4.20 implies 23.8%, a clear value gap versus an Everton side priced a bit short (39% vs 1.91 implying 52.4%). The draw is fairly valued (28% vs 29.4% implied), so the standout is the home win. With a balanced confidence score (0.52), a moderate 0.12 stake captures the mispricing without overexposure.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETAWAY
0.25@1.91
H 25% | D 35% | A 40%→ 1-2Everton away at Burnley presents a clear value opportunity with the visitors' 40% win probability substantially higher than the 52.4% implied by the 1.91 odds. This creates a meaningful 12+ percentage point edge in Everton's favor, suggesting the market has undervalued their chances against a struggling Burnley side. The 0.6 confidence score provides solid backing for this assessment, and the gap is too significant to ignore. I'm backing Everton with a 0.25 stake to capitalize on what appears to be genuine market mispricing.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 35% | D 29% | A 36%→ 1-2The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.02@4.20
H 28% | D 29% | A 43%→ 1-2The model identifies Burnley as undervalued at home, assigning them a 28% win probability against the implied odds of 23.8% from the 4.2 price. This offers a positive expected value, even with a moderate confidence score of 0.65. I'm placing a small, disciplined stake of 0.02 units to capture this value, acknowledging the inherent risk in backing an underdog.
West HamvsFulham
Sat 15:00
Odds (Bet365):2.70|3.30|2.55
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.12@2.55
H 35% | D 28% | A 37%→ 1-2Our model has Fulham at 37% and the price 2.55 implies 39.2%, which is slightly negative, while West Ham’s 35% vs 2.70 (37.0% implied) is also marginally negative. The draw at 28% vs 3.3 (30.3% implied) isn’t attractive either. Given the near balance and confidence of 0.52, I’ll take a small stance on the away side’s slightly stronger win probability profile and better matchup volatility, but keep the stake tight at 0.12.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.20@2.70
H 25% | D 35% | A 40%→ 1-2West Ham versus Fulham offers a nice edge on the home side, with the Hammers' 25% win probability comparing favorably to the 37% implied by the 2.7 odds. While this might seem counterintuitive backing the underdog, the model suggests West Ham are being undervalued at home against Fulham. The 0.6 confidence score supports this assessment, and London derbies can often be unpredictable affairs where home advantage matters more than form suggests. I'm taking a moderate 0.2 stake on West Ham to exploit this perceived value gap.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 35% | D 29% | A 36%→ 1-2The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.06@2.55
H 28% | D 29% | A 43%→ 1-2The model indicates a positive expected value for Fulham to win away, with a 43% probability compared to the implied odds of 39.2% from the 2.55 price. This represents a decent edge, supported by a confidence score of 0.68. I'm allocating a modest stake of 0.06 units to capitalize on this value, seeing Fulham as slightly underestimated by the market.
BrentfordvsBournemouth
Sat 15:00
Odds (Bet365):2.25|3.60|3.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.15@2.25
H 49% | D 27% | A 24%→ 2-1Brentford at 49% vs 2.25 (44.4% implied) offers a solid positive edge, with draw and away both priced fairly or worse (27% vs 27.8% and 24% vs 33.3%). Confidence is healthy at 0.56, making this one of the cleaner value spots on the slate. I’ll lean in a bit more here with 0.15 units to reflect the favorable discrepancy.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.25@2.25
H 49% | D 28% | A 24%→ 2-1Brentford at home to Bournemouth shows excellent value with the Bees' 48.5% win probability significantly exceeding the 44.4% implied by the 2.25 odds. This creates a solid 4+ percentage point edge backed by a strong 0.7 confidence score, suggesting our model has identified genuine market inefficiency. Brentford's home form and style typically suits them well against visiting sides like Bournemouth, and the bookmaker appears to have underestimated their chances. I'm backing Brentford with a 0.25 stake to capitalize on this clear value opportunity.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.09@2.25
H 51% | D 26% | A 23%→ 2-1Brentford's home win probability is slightly higher than the market suggests, offering a small edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Bees' home form is decent, so I'm taking a modest stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.15@2.25
H 55% | D 28% | A 17%→ 2-1There's a strong positive expected value on Brentford winning at home, with the model's 55% probability significantly exceeding the implied odds of 44.4% from the 2.25 price. This clear edge is backed by a high confidence score of 0.78. I'm placing a solid stake of 0.15 units to leverage this favorable discrepancy in the market.
ChelseavsAston Villa
Sat 17:30
Odds (Bet365):1.85|3.90|3.90
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.10@3.90
H 49% | D 28% | A 23%→ 1-0Chelsea are 49% vs 1.85 (54.1% implied), so the home price is too short; the draw is roughly fair (28% vs 25.6%). Villa at 23% vs 3.9 (25.6% implied) is slightly negative by the numbers, but among options it best counters the market’s Chelsea premium. With lower confidence (0.48), I’ll keep it cautious at 0.10 while leaning into the market overrating the hosts.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 60% | D 25% | A 15%→ 2-1Chelsea hosting Aston Villa presents a tricky scenario where the model suggests a 60% home win probability, but the low 0.4 confidence score raises red flags about reliability. The implied odds of 54% (1/1.85) aren't far off our model's assessment, and with such low confidence in the prediction, any perceived edge could easily be noise rather than signal. Given Chelsea's inconsistency this season and Villa's ability to surprise bigger teams, I'm avoiding this match where uncertainty outweighs any marginal value that might exist.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.13@1.85
H 53% | D 30% | A 17%→ 2-0Chelsea's home win probability is higher than the market implies, presenting a decent value opportunity. The confidence score is moderate, and the Blues' quality should shine through, so I'm taking a reasonable stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.20@3.90
H 32% | D 33% | A 35%→ 1-2The model identifies a substantial positive expected value for Aston Villa to win away, with a 35% probability against the implied odds of 25.6% from the 3.9 price. Despite a lower confidence score of 0.6, the significant value gap makes this an attractive bet. I'm committing a substantial stake of 0.2 units to exploit this perceived mispricing.
SunderlandvsLeeds
Sun 14:00
Odds (Bet365):2.62|3.20|2.75
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.10@2.62
H 46% | D 28% | A 26%→ 2-1Sunderland are 46% while 2.62 implies 38.2%, a meaningful edge; the draw is about fair (28% vs 31.3%) and Leeds are slightly overpriced at 26% vs 36.4% implied. Confidence at 0.56 supports taking the home angle as the main value pocket. I’ll allocate 0.10 units to balance upside with prudent bankroll management.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.15@2.62
H 55% | D 28% | A 18%→ 2-1Sunderland versus Leeds offers a solid home backing opportunity with the Black Cats' 55% win probability comparing well to the 38.2% implied by the 2.62 odds. This represents a meaningful 17 percentage point edge backed by a strong 0.7 confidence score, suggesting genuine value in the home side. Sunderland's passionate home support and recent form appears undervalued by the market against a Leeds side that can be inconsistent on the road. I'm taking a 0.15 stake on Sunderland to exploit this clear pricing discrepancy while managing risk appropriately.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.09@2.62
H 51% | D 26% | A 23%→ 2-1Sunderland's home win probability is slightly higher than the market suggests, offering a small edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Black Cats' home form is decent, so I'm taking a modest stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.30@2.62
H 60% | D 25% | A 15%→ 2-1This match presents an exceptional positive expected value on Sunderland winning at home, with a 60% probability far surpassing the implied odds of 38.1% from the 2.62 price. The high confidence score of 0.78 further reinforces this strong edge. I'm allocating the largest stake of 0.3 units to maximize returns from this highly favorable market discrepancy.
Crystal PalacevsTottenham
Sun 16:30
Odds (Bet365):2.20|3.25|3.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.05@3.30
H 38% | D 28% | A 34%→ 1-1Palace 38% vs 2.20 (45.5%) is too short, while Spurs 34% vs 3.30 (30.3%) offers some value relative to our model. The draw is roughly aligned (28% vs 30.8%). With the lowest confidence of the slate (0.44), I’ll take a small 0.05 punt on the away price being a shade generous without risking much bankroll.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 35% | D 28% | A 38%→ 1-2Crystal Palace hosting Tottenham presents a match where the model shows fairly balanced probabilities across all outcomes, but the concerning 0.3 confidence score suggests significant uncertainty in the prediction. With Spurs slightly favored at 37.5% away win probability versus Palace's 35% home chances, and the low confidence making any edge questionable, this feels like a coin flip scenario. The bookmaker's odds reflect similar uncertainty, and without reliable model conviction, I'm avoiding this unpredictable London derby to preserve bankroll for clearer opportunities.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 42% | D 31% | A 27%→ 1-1The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.10@3.30
H 27% | D 35% | A 38%→ 1-1The model indicates a positive expected value for Tottenham to win away, with a 38% probability compared to the implied odds of 30.3% from the 3.3 price. While the confidence score is lower at 0.55, the value gap is still significant enough to warrant attention. I'm placing a moderate stake of 0.1 units to capture this edge, balancing risk with potential reward.
EPL AI Predictions – Week 18 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025-2026 season, week 18. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025-2026 season.