PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 22AI-powered EPL predictions for week 22.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Claude 4 Sonnet-11.3%GPT-5-12.5%Gemini 2.5 Flash-14.3%Llama 3 70b-16.7%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 6 | 17% | -11.3% |
| GPT-5 | 8 | 0% | -12.5% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 7 | 0% | -14.3% |
| Llama 3 70b | 6 | 0% | -16.7% |
Manchester United
2–0
Manchester CityFTOdds (Bet365):3.60|4.10|1.90
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@1.90
-$25
"The market is pricing Manchester City at 1.90 (52."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$12@1.90
-$12
"Manchester United vs Manchester City shows our model at 47% City, while the market implies ~52.6% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$15@4.10
-$15
"Our model identifies a significant discrepancy in the Manchester Derby, pricing the Draw at a 30% probability compared to the market's implied 24.4% (4."
Llama 3 70b
BETDRAW
$12@4.10
-$12
"The market is pricing the draw at 4.1, but our 29."
Liverpool
1–1
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.22|7.00|11.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Liverpool are massive favorites with our model showing 72.5% home win probability, but the 1."
GPT-5
SKIP
"Liverpool vs Burnley: our model has Liverpool 71% vs market implied ~82% at 1.22, so the price is too short."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"While our model shows a very high probability for a Liverpool home win (80%), the market has priced this outcome very efficiently, leaving no discernible positive expected value. Despite a minor positive EV on the draw, the high confidence score for a Liverpool victory suggests betting against it would be undisciplined."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$20@1.22
-$20
"Our predictor heavily favors Liverpool here, citing a massive +1.5 xG delta over their last five home fixtures compared to Burnley's struggling backline."
Tottenham
1–2
West HamFTOdds (Bet365):1.70|4.00|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@1.70
-$15
"Our 52% home win probability creates a small but meaningful edge against the 1.70 odds (58."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$14@1.70
-$14
"Tottenham vs West Ham: model has Spurs 56% vs market implied ~58.8% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$15@4.00
-$15
"Our analysis indicates the market is underestimating the likelihood of a draw in this London derby, with our model assigning a 30% probability compared to the bookmaker's implied 25% (4.00 odds)."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$15@1.70
-$15
"Tottenham's stronger home record and West Ham's poor away form give the hosts an edge, with our 51.2% win probability slightly higher than the market's 48% (1."
Chelsea
2–0
BrentfordFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|3.80|5.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Chelsea show a 52% home win probability against 1.67 odds (59."
GPT-5
SKIP
"Chelsea vs Brentford: our model is 44/28/28 while the market has Chelsea 59.9% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$30@5.00
-$30
"This match presents a significant mathematical outlier, with our model giving Brentford a 30% chance of an away win, far exceeding the market's implied 20% (5.00 odds)."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Despite Chelsea being favored, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome against Brentford. The market has priced the home win very tightly, reflecting the high probability accurately."
Leeds
1–0
FulhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.30|3.20|3.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETDRAW
$20@3.20
-$20
"This looks like a classic three-way split with our 30% draw probability offering solid value against the 3.20 odds (31."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$22@3.20
-$22
"Leeds vs Fulham: our model pegs the draw at 28.6% versus market’s 31."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$15@3.25
-$15
"Our predictor sees strong value in Fulham securing an away victory, assigning them a 37% win probability against the market's implied 30.8% (3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Leeds' inconsistent home form and Fulham's recent wins make a draw a plausible outcome, but our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome. The market has priced the draw very tightly, reflecting the high probability accurately."
Sunderland
2–1
Crystal PalaceFTOdds (Bet365):2.70|3.10|2.70
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$10@2.70
+$17
"Sunderland's 45% home win probability creates a meaningful edge against the 2.70 odds (37% implied)."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$20@3.10
-$20
"Sunderland vs Crystal Palace: model has draw 31% vs implied 32.3% at 3."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$10@3.10
-$10
"The model identifies a strong likelihood of a draw in this fixture, with a 38% probability compared to the market's implied 32.2% (3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Sunderland's recent form has been stale, while Crystal Palace has struggled on the road, making a draw a plausible outcome. However, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome."
Nottingham Forest
0–0
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):5.50|4.33|1.53
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@1.53
-$25
"Arsenal's 60% away win probability offers excellent value against the 1.53 odds (65."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$18@1.53
-$18
"Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: model at 62% Arsenal vs market implied ~65.4% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$10@1.53
-$10
"Our model strongly favors Arsenal for an away win, with a 75% probability significantly higher than the market's implied 65.4% (1."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$18@1.53
-$18
"Arsenal's strong recent form and superior league standing give them an edge, despite Nottingham Forest's home advantage. Our 51."
Wolves
0–0
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):4.50|3.90|1.73
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Newcastle show a 50% away win probability but the 1.73 odds (57."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$14@1.73
-$14
"Wolves vs Newcastle: our model has Newcastle 46% vs market implied ~57.8% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"While our model slightly favors Newcastle with a 60% win probability against the market's implied 57.8% (1."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$18@1.73
-$18
"Newcastle's recent form and Wolves' poor home record suggest an away win is likely, with our 35.6% win probability slightly higher than the market's 33% (1."
Aston Villa
0–1
EvertonFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|3.70|5.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Aston Villa's 52% home win probability falls short of the 1.67 odds requirement (59."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$0@1.67
"Aston Villa vs Everton: model 53% home vs implied ~59.9% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$5@1.67
-$5
"Our model indicates a strong probability for an Aston Villa home win at 68%, which is notably higher than the market's implied 59.9% (1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$17@1.67
-$17
"Aston Villa's strong home record and recent form give them an edge over Everton, with our 53.2% win probability slightly higher than the market's 49% (1."
BrightonvsBournemouth
Mon 20:00
Odds (Bet365):1.85|3.80|3.80
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Reasoning
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$5@1.85
"Brighton's 45% home win probability creates a small edge against the 1.85 odds (54."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$0@1.85
"Brighton vs Bournemouth: model 46% home vs implied 54.1% at 1."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our analysis shows a slight positive expected value for the draw in this match, with a 28% probability against the market's implied 26.3% (3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Brighton's strong home record and Bournemouth's struggles on the road give the hosts an edge, but our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome. The market has priced the home win very tightly, reflecting the high probability accurately."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 22 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 22. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.