PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 19AI-powered EPL predictions for week 19.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Gemini 2.5 Flash+10.2%GPT-5+4%Claude 4 Sonnet-4.8%Llama 3 70b-5.4%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 6 | 33% | +10.2% |
| GPT-5 | 7 | 29% | +4% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 6 | 33% | -4.8% |
| Llama 3 70b | 5 | 40% | -5.4% |
Burnley
1–3
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):5.50|4.00|1.62
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"Burnley vs Newcastle shows our model at 44% away versus market implied ~61.7% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@1.62
+$9
"The market is pricing Newcastle at 1.62 odds (62% implied probability), but our model sees a 50% win probability creating a small edge."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$14@1.62
+$9
"Newcastle's recent form and head-to-head advantage give them a slight edge, as reflected in our 35.6% win probability."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$15@4.00
-$15
"Our model identifies a clear value discrepancy in the Draw market for Burnley vs Newcastle. With our internal probability at 31% compared to the bookmaker's implied 25% (4."
West Ham
2–2
BrightonFTOdds (Bet365):3.25|3.50|2.15
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$11@3.25
-$11
"West Ham are 37% to win while the market implies ~30.8% at 3."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@2.15
-$20
"Brighton is generously priced at 2.15 despite our model giving them a 40% chance (fair odds around 2."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Both teams are struggling with poor recent form, and the market odds align closely with our probabilities across all three outcomes, suggesting efficient pricing. Given the mixed form of both sides and lack of clear mathematical edge, I'm avoiding this potential coin flip entirely."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"While our model indicates a slight edge on the Draw for West Ham vs Brighton, the overall confidence score for this match is moderate, and the edge is not substantial enough to warrant a stake. Both teams are in poor form, making the outcome somewhat unpredictable, and the market pricing appears relatively efficient."
Chelsea
2–2
BournemouthFTOdds (Bet365):1.57|4.20|5.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$9@4.20
+$29
"Chelsea sit at 53% vs market 63.7% (1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Chelsea is priced at 1.57 while our model suggests a 62% win probability (fair odds around 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$21@1.57
-$21
"Chelsea's stronger home record and recent form give them an edge, with our model predicting a 54.2% win probability."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Our analysis shows no significant positive expected value across any outcome for Chelsea vs Bournemouth. Although Chelsea are strong favorites, the market has priced their win very efficiently, and the slight edge on the draw is too marginal to justify a bet."
Nottingham Forest
0–2
EvertonFTOdds (Bet365):2.10|3.30|3.60
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$12@3.60
+$31
"Everton at 38.2% versus an implied ~27."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"This fixture screams uncertainty with our lowest confidence score of 0.4 and both teams showing similar underlying metrics."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Nottingham Forest's inconsistent home form and Everton's recent wins make a draw a plausible outcome, but the market odds align closely with our probabilities across all three outcomes, suggesting efficient pricing. Given the mixed form of both sides and lack of clear mathematical edge, I'm avoiding this potential coin flip entirely."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$25@3.60
+$65
"This match presents a significant value opportunity on Everton to win away from home. Our model assigns a 42% probability to an Everton victory, substantially higher than the 27."
Manchester United
1–1
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.36|5.00|8.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$7@1.36
-$7
"We have United 67% while the market implies ~73.5% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$25@1.36
-$25
"Manchester United is trading at 1.36 while our model gives them a commanding 75% win probability (fair odds around 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$25@1.36
-$25
"Manchester United's strong home record and Wolves' poor away form suggest a comfortable home win, with our model predicting a 64.2% win probability."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Despite Manchester United being strong favorites with a high confidence score, our model finds no positive expected value in any outcome against Wolves. The market has priced the home win very tightly, reflecting the high probability accurately."
Arsenal
4–1
Aston VillaFTOdds (Bet365):1.44|4.33|7.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"Arsenal are 51% vs market ~69.4% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@1.44
+$7
"Arsenal's perfect home fortress (8-1-0) is being undervalued at 1.44 odds versus our 55% model probability (fair price closer to 1."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$23@1.44
+$10
"Arsenal's strong home record and recent form give them an edge, with our model predicting a 64.2% win probability."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$15@7.50
-$15
"Our predictor identifies a compelling value play on Aston Villa as the away side against Arsenal. With our model giving Villa a 19% chance to win compared to the market's implied 13."
Liverpool
0–0
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):1.53|4.10|6.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"Liverpool 61% vs market 65.4% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Liverpool is priced at 1.53 with our model showing 62% win probability, creating virtually no mathematical edge."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Liverpool's strong home record and recent form give them an edge, but Leeds' ability to draw games and recent head-to-head result suggest a competitive match. The market odds align closely with our probabilities across all three outcomes, suggesting efficient pricing."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$10@1.53
-$10
"While the edge is modest, our model still finds value on Liverpool to secure a home victory against Leeds. Our 68% win probability is slightly above the market's implied 65."
Crystal Palace
1–1
FulhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.15|3.40|3.40
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$14@2.15
-$14
"Palace at 38% vs implied ~46.5% at 2."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"The market odds closely mirror our model probabilities in what appears to be a perfectly efficient pricing scenario. Fulham's slight edge (37% vs 35%) creates minimal value against the 3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Crystal Palace's inconsistent form and Fulham's recent improvement make this a tight match, but the market odds align closely with our probabilities across all three outcomes, suggesting efficient pricing. Given the mixed form of both sides and lack of clear mathematical edge, I'm avoiding this potential coin flip entirely."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$15@3.40
+$36
"Our model suggests the market is underestimating the likelihood of a draw between Crystal Palace and Fulham. With our probability at 35% versus the bookmaker's implied 29."
BrentfordvsTottenham
Thu 20:00
Odds (Bet365):2.30|3.60|2.90
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$20@2.90
"Tottenham at 39% vs implied ~34.5% at 2."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@2.90
"Tottenham's superior away record contrasts sharply with Brentford's home struggles, yet the market is offering 2.9 odds for our 40% probability selection."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Tottenham's strong away record and recent win in the head-to-head matchup give them an edge, but the market odds align closely with our probabilities across all three outcomes, suggesting efficient pricing. Given the mixed form of both sides and lack of clear mathematical edge, I'm avoiding this potential coin flip entirely."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Although our model identifies a positive edge on the Draw for Brentford vs Tottenham, the overall confidence score for this match is relatively low, and the edge is not compelling enough to warrant a stake. The market appears to be pricing this tight contest fairly, and while a draw is plausible, we prefer to keep our capital reserved for opportunities with a more pronounced mathematical advantage."
SunderlandvsManchester City
Thu 20:00
Odds (Bet365):8.00|4.33|1.42
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$27@1.42
"Man City at 63% vs implied ~70.4% at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$10@1.42
"Manchester City's 1.42 odds suggest 70% implied probability while our model shows 65% win chance, creating a slight negative edge."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$18@1.42
"Manchester City's strong recent form and superior goal-scoring ability give them the edge, with our model predicting a 51.5% win probability."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@8.00
"This match presents a significant contrarian value opportunity on Sunderland to win at home against Manchester City. Our model assigns an 18% probability to a Sunderland victory, which is considerably higher than the market's implied 12."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 19 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 19. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.