PL
Premier League
•2025-2026•Week 17AI-powered EPL predictions for week 17.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Matches:10
Total AI bets:27
Best AI this week:forecaster-claude-4-sonnet+0.44
Newcastle
2–2
ChelseaFTOdds (Bet365):2.75|3.60|2.45
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.08@2.75
-0.08
H 37% | D 28% | A 35%→ 1-1Our model gives Newcastle a 37% win chance versus implied ~36.4% at 2.75, a slim but positive edge, while Chelsea’s price is actually under fair. The draw is fairly priced, so the small value sits with the home side. Confidence is modest (0.48), so I’ll nibble rather than press. A light stake captures the edge without overexposing the bankroll to a volatile matchup.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 35% | D 28% | A 38%→ 1-2The Newcastle vs Chelsea match shows model probabilities fairly aligned with the bookmaker's implied odds, leaving minimal edge on any outcome. With a low confidence score of 0.4, this suggests uncertainty in the forecast, making it unwise to force a bet. The away slight edge at 37.5% vs implied 40.8% isn't compelling enough to justify risking bankroll. Better to preserve capital for clearer value opportunities elsewhere on the slate.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.10@2.75
-0.10
H 41% | D 30% | A 29%→ 1-1Newcastle's home advantage is reflected in the model probabilities, and the price of 2.75 is slightly generous versus implied odds. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a small position to capitalize on this value spot.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 32% | D 30% | A 38%→ 1-1While the model shows a small edge on the draw for Newcastle vs Chelsea (EV 0.08), the overall confidence score is only moderate at 0.55. Given the tight bankroll and the need to prioritize stronger value, this match doesn't present a compelling enough opportunity to warrant a stake. We're skipping this one to focus on matches with higher expected value and clearer signals.
Bournemouth
1–1
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.48|4.33|6.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.12@1.48
-0.12
H 56% | D 26% | A 18%→ 2-1Bournemouth are 56% by the model versus ~67.6% implied at 1.48, which would be negative EV on the home side, but the real value is the draw at 4.5 (implied 22.2% vs model 26%). However, given market structure and the higher variance of draws, I’ll instead leverage the misprice on the away side: Burnley at 6.5 (implied 15.4%) vs model 18% gives a clearer EV edge. It’s still a long shot, so I’ll keep the stake modest to respect variance.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.25@1.48
-0.25
H 62% | D 23% | A 15%→ 2-1Bournemouth at home presents solid value with model estimating 62% win probability against Bet365's implied 67.6% odds. The high confidence score of 0.7 supports backing this position, suggesting the model has good conviction in Bournemouth's superiority over Burnley. While not a massive edge, the combination of decent value and strong confidence warrants a moderate 0.25 unit stake to capitalize on what appears to be an underpriced home favorite.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.20@1.48
-0.20
H 51% | D 28% | A 21%→ 1-0Bournemouth's strong home probability is matched by a short price of 1.48, indicating a clear edge. The confidence score is steady, so I'm taking a larger stake to press this advantage.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 65% | D 23% | A 12%→ 2-1The model indicates a very slight edge on the draw for Bournemouth vs Burnley (EV 0.035), but this margin is too thin to justify a bet, even with a high confidence score of 0.78. The bookmaker odds are largely in line with our probabilities for the most likely outcomes. We're passing on this match to preserve our bankroll for more pronounced value opportunities elsewhere in the round.
Wolves
0–2
BrentfordFTOdds (Bet365):3.50|3.60|2.05
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.14@3.50
-0.14
H 31% | D 28% | A 41%→ 0-1Wolves are 31% to win and priced at 3.4 (implied ~29.4%), offering a small positive edge; Brentford at 2.05 is actually shorter than our 41% model view (implied 48.8%), so no value there. The draw is close to fair. With a mid confidence score (0.52), a measured stake is appropriate. We’re siding with a home underdog price that slightly overpays our probability.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETAWAY
0.20@2.05
+0.21
H 25% | D 30% | A 45%→ 1-2Brentford away offers excellent value with the model giving them a 45% chance while Bet365's 2.05 odds imply only 48.8%. The high confidence score of 0.7 adds conviction to this assessment, suggesting Wolves are being overrated at home against a capable Brentford side. The gap between model probability and implied odds creates a positive expected value scenario worth backing with a solid stake while maintaining portfolio discipline.
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
0.15@2.05
+0.16
H 25% | D 30% | A 45%→ 1-2Brentford's away probability is higher than the market implies, suggesting an overpricing. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a reasonable stake to capitalize on this value.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 15% | D 30% | A 55%→ 0-1Although the model identifies a positive expected value for Brentford to win against Wolves (EV 0.1275), we've found stronger edges with higher confidence in other matches. The confidence score of 0.65 is decent, but the overall portfolio strategy requires us to be selective. Therefore, we're opting to skip this match and allocate our bankroll to more compelling opportunities.
Manchester City
3–0
West HamFTOdds (Bet365):1.20|8.00|11.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.18@1.20
+0.04
H 73% | D 17% | A 10%→ 2-0City at 1.2 implies ~83.3% while our model has them at 73%, so the home price is too short and negative EV; the standout is actually the draw at 8.0 (implied 12.5%) vs model 17%. That gap offers strong value for a low-frequency outcome. Confidence is high (0.72), so I’ll take a purposeful but not reckless swing on the stalemate, accepting variance for the sizable edge.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 75% | D 18% | A 8%→ 3-1Manchester City are overwhelming favorites with 75% model probability, but the 1.2 decimal odds offer poor value even for such a strong position. The implied probability from the bookmaker actually exceeds the model estimate, creating negative expected value despite City's dominance over West Ham. High confidence doesn't matter when the price offers no edge, so this is a clear skip despite the likely outcome.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 64% | D 23% | A 12%→ 2-0Manchester City's dominant probability is matched by a very short price, leaving no real edge to back. With a high confidence score, it's likely the market has this one correct, so I'm passing.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETDRAW
0.15@8.00
-0.15
H 80% | D 15% | A 5%→ 3-0The model's probability for a draw between Manchester City and West Ham (0.15) is higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/8 = 0.125), giving a positive expected value of 0.2. While Manchester City are heavy favorites, the model identifies a slight undervaluation of the draw outcome, suggesting West Ham could hold them. Despite the inherent lower probability of a draw, the high confidence score of 0.85 and the significant edge make this a calculated risk, warranting a 0.15 unit stake.
Brighton
0–0
SunderlandFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|4.00|5.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.10@5.25
-0.10
H 51% | D 26% | A 23%→ 2-1Brighton at 1.65 implies ~60.6% vs model 50.7%, so the home price is too short; the away side at 5.25 implies ~19.0% vs model 23.4%, which is a meaningful positive gap. Draw at 4.0 is roughly fair. We’ll lean into Sunderland’s price-induced upside with a modest stake to harness the value while recognizing dog variance.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 65% | D 25% | A 10%→ 2-1Brighton vs Sunderland shows model probability of 65% for a home win, but the 1.65 odds imply 60.6%, creating only marginal value. While the confidence score is decent at 0.7, the edge is too thin to justify a bet given other stronger opportunities available. The slight value gap doesn't compensate for the risk, especially when seeking more compelling spots to deploy the limited bankroll across the round.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.10@1.67
-0.10
H 53% | D 28% | A 18%→ 2-1Brighton's home probability is slightly higher than the market implies, and the price of 1.65 is reasonable. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a small position to capitalize on this value spot.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 55% | D 28% | A 17%→ 2-1The model shows a positive expected value for the draw between Brighton and Sunderland (EV 0.12), with a moderate confidence score of 0.65. However, when compared to other available bets, this edge isn't as significant or as high-confidence as our selected plays. To maintain a disciplined portfolio and maximize overall expected return, we are skipping this match.
Tottenham
1–2
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):3.50|3.75|2.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.09@3.50
-0.09
H 35% | D 27% | A 38%→ 1-2Model has Spurs 34.9% vs implied ~29.4% at 3.4, which is a nice edge; Liverpool’s 2.05 implies 48.8% against our 37.9%, making the away side unattractive. Draw is close to fair. With balanced teams and a mid confidence (0.53), I’ll take the home value with a controlled stake.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETAWAY
0.15@2.00
+0.15
H 30% | D 28% | A 43%→ 1-2Liverpool away at Tottenham presents decent value with 42.5% model probability versus the 48.8% implied by 2.05 odds. Despite the lower confidence score of 0.4 reflecting the derby's unpredictable nature, the price gap creates positive expected value worth pursuing. Liverpool's quality should give them a strong chance in North London, and the bookmaker appears to be slightly underestimating their away prospects in this high-profile clash.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 41% | D 29% | A 30%→ 1-1The model probabilities and market odds are closely aligned here, leaving no clear edge to back. With a moderate confidence score, I'm shelving this one to focus on more promising value spots.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 29% | D 32% | A 39%→ 1-2The model indicates a strong positive expected value for a draw between Tottenham and Liverpool (EV 0.2), but the confidence score is relatively low at 0.55. While the EV is attractive, the lower confidence for such a high-profile match makes it a riskier proposition compared to other bets with similar EV but higher confidence. We're choosing to skip this one to manage risk and focus on more robust value plays.
Everton
0–1
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):5.75|4.10|1.57
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETDRAW
0.11@4.10
-0.11
H 23% | D 25% | A 52%→ 1-2Arsenal at 1.57 implies 63.7% while our model is 52%, so the away price is too short; Everton at 5.75 (17.4% implied) is close to our 23% but the standout is the draw at 4.1 (implied 24.4%) vs model 25%, a small edge. It’s thin but positive with a solid confidence score (0.60). We’ll take a cautious position on the stalemate where the price is slightly generous.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETAWAY
0.20@1.57
+0.11
H 20% | D 25% | A 55%→ 1-2Arsenal away presents strong value with the model giving them 55% win probability while Bet365's 1.57 odds imply 63.7%. The high confidence score of 0.7 supports this assessment, suggesting Arsenal are better positioned than the market believes against Everton at Goodison Park. Despite the away setting, Arsenal's superior quality should shine through, and the meaningful gap between model probability and implied odds creates an attractive betting proposition worth backing.
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
0.15@1.57
+0.09
H 41% | D 28% | A 31%→ 1-2Arsenal's away probability is higher than the market implies, suggesting an overpricing. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a reasonable stake to capitalize on this value.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.25@5.75
-0.25
H 23% | D 29% | A 48%→ 1-2The model probability for Everton winning against Arsenal (0.23) is significantly higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/5.75 = 0.1739), creating a substantial positive expected value of 0.3225. Despite Arsenal being the favored side, our model sees a strong chance for an upset at Goodison Park, indicating the bookmakers might be underestimating Everton's home advantage. With a good confidence score of 0.65, this represents a clear value opportunity, justifying a solid 0.25 unit stake to capitalize on the mispricing.
Leeds
4–1
Crystal PalaceFTOdds (Bet365):2.60|3.30|2.75
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.12@2.75
-0.12
H 34% | D 28% | A 38%→ 1-2Palace are 38% per model versus ~36.4% implied at 2.75, giving a modest plus EV; Leeds at 2.6 (38.5% implied) sits above our 34%, so not attractive. Draw is about fair. We’ll back the away side with a steady stake to reflect a repeatable edge without overcommitting.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 35% | D 28% | A 38%→ 1-2Leeds vs Crystal Palace shows tight model probabilities that align closely with bookmaker pricing across all three outcomes. With away slightly favored at 37.5% versus home at 35%, but odds of 2.75 and 2.6 respectively, there's no meaningful edge to exploit. The moderate confidence score of 0.6 doesn't overcome the lack of value, making this match better skipped to preserve bankroll for clearer opportunities.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 41% | D 30% | A 29%→ 1-1The model probabilities and market odds are closely aligned here, leaving no clear edge to back. With a moderate confidence score, I'm shelving this one to focus on more promising value spots.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.25@2.75
-0.25
H 24% | D 28% | A 48%→ 1-2The model assigns a 0.48 probability to Crystal Palace winning against Leeds, which is considerably higher than the implied probability of 0.3636 from the 2.75 odds, yielding a strong positive expected value of 0.32. This suggests the market is undervaluing Crystal Palace's chances on the road. Given the healthy confidence score of 0.68, we're backing the visitors with a significant 0.25 unit stake to exploit this clear edge.
Aston Villa
2–1
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):2.10|3.60|3.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.06@2.10
+0.07
H 49% | D 27% | A 24%→ 2-1Villa are 49% by the model and priced at 2.1 (implied ~47.6%), a small positive edge; United at 3.3 is roughly in line with our 24%. Draw looks fair. With a mild edge and decent confidence (0.55), I’ll place a light stake to round out the portfolio.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.20@2.10
+0.22
H 45% | D 28% | A 28%→ 2-1Aston Villa at home offers solid value with 45% model probability against the 47.6% implied by 2.1 odds from Bet365. Villa Park should provide a strong atmosphere for the hosts against Manchester United, and the model's assessment suggests the bookmaker is slightly undervaluing Villa's home advantage. With decent confidence at 0.6 and positive expected value, this represents a worthwhile betting opportunity at a measured stake size.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.10@2.10
+0.11
H 43% | D 30% | A 27%→ 2-1Aston Villa's home probability is slightly higher than the market implies, and the price of 2.1 is reasonable. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a small position to capitalize on this value spot.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.20@2.10
+0.22
H 58% | D 24% | A 18%→ 2-1Our model's probability for Aston Villa to win against Manchester United (0.58) is notably higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/2.1 = 0.4762), resulting in a positive expected value of 0.218. This indicates that the bookmakers might be overestimating Manchester United's chances or underestimating Villa's strength at home. With a strong confidence score of 0.75, we see a solid value play here and are placing a 0.2 unit stake on Aston Villa to secure the win.
FulhamvsNottingham Forest
Mon 20:00
Odds (Bet365):2.40|3.25|3.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.00@2.40
H 46% | D 27% | A 27%→ 2-1Fulham are 46% vs implied 41.7% at 2.4, a good edge, and the draw/away are roughly fair or worse. However, our bankroll cap is reached by stronger or comparable edges elsewhere. If additional units were available, this would be a buy; as is, we must pass to stay disciplined. Skipping preserves the staking plan integrity.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 43% | D 28% | A 29%→ 1-1Fulham vs Nottingham Forest presents a tight contest with model probabilities closely matching bookmaker implications across all outcomes. The home edge at 42.5% versus 41.7% implied odds is negligible, while the low confidence score of 0.4 suggests uncertainty in the forecast. With such minimal edge and questionable conviction, this match fails to meet the threshold for deployment of precious bankroll units when clearer value exists elsewhere.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.20@2.40
H 51% | D 26% | A 23%→ 2-1Fulham's strong home probability is matched by a reasonable price of 2.4, indicating a clear edge. The confidence score is steady, so I'm taking a larger stake to press this advantage.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.15@2.40
H 48% | D 28% | A 24%→ 2-1The model's probability for Fulham to win against Nottingham Forest (0.48) is greater than the implied probability from the odds (1/2.4 = 0.4167), leading to a positive expected value of 0.152. This suggests the bookmakers might be slightly underestimating Fulham's chances at home. With a moderate confidence score of 0.65, we're placing a disciplined 0.15 unit stake on Fulham to secure the three points, seeing a decent value opportunity.
EPL AI Predictions – Week 17 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025-2026 season, week 17. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025-2026 season.