PL
Premier League
•2025-2026•Week 18AI-powered EPL predictions for week 18.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Gemini 2.5 Flash+12.5%GPT-5+5.3%Llama 3 70b+4.4%Claude 4 Sonnet-1.4%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 8 | 75% | +12.5% |
| GPT-5 | 10 | 50% | +5.3% |
| Llama 3 70b | 7 | 71% | +4.4% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 5 | 40% | -1.4% |
Manchester United
1–0
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):2.50|3.60|2.62
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$13@2.50
+$20
"Our model has United at 44% while the price 2.50 implies 40%, leaving a modest positive edge on the hosts."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@2.50
+$22
"Manchester United's home win probability at 45% significantly exceeds the implied odds of 40% (1/2.5), creating a solid 5 percentage point edge."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$13@2.50
+$19
"Manchester United's probability of winning is higher than the implied odds suggest, offering a small but attractive edge. The confidence score is decent, and the matchup favors the home side, so I'm willing to take a moderate stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@2.50
+$22
"The model identifies a significant edge on Manchester United winning at home, with their 52% probability being considerably higher than the implied odds of 40% from the bookmaker's price of 2.5."
Nottingham Forest
1–2
Manchester CityFTOdds (Bet365):5.25|4.33|1.55
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$8@4.33
-$8
"City are fairly priced or even a touch short: model 61% vs 1.55 implying 64."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"While Manchester City are heavily favored away to Nottingham Forest, the model probabilities align closely with the bookmaker's assessment across all outcomes. The away win probability of 60% matches almost perfectly with the implied odds of 64."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$19@1.55
+$10
"Manchester City's away win probability is significantly higher than the market implies, presenting a strong value opportunity. The confidence score is high, and the visitors' quality should shine through, so I'm taking a larger stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$2@1.55
+$1
"Despite Manchester City being strong favorites, the model still finds a positive expected value on the away win, with a 75% probability against the implied odds of 64.5%."
Liverpool
2–1
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.25|6.50|9.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$6@6.50
-$6
"Liverpool at 63% vs 1.25 (80% implied) is poor value, and Wolves at 15% vs 9."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Liverpool's dominance is reflected in both the model (70% home win probability) and the bookmaker's pricing (80% implied odds at 1.25)."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$16@1.25
+$4
"Liverpool's home win probability is higher than the market suggests, offering a decent edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Reds' strong home form should continue, so I'm taking a reasonable stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The bookmaker's odds for a Liverpool win perfectly align with our model's probability of 80%, leaving no discernible positive expected value. With no clear edge and a high confidence score simply confirming the market's accuracy, forcing a bet here would be speculative."
Arsenal
2–1
BrightonFTOdds (Bet365):1.38|5.00|7.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$9@5.00
-$9
"Arsenal are 61% vs 1.38 (72."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Arsenal hosting Brighton presents another case where the model and market are singing in harmony. The Gunners' 62% home win probability falls slightly short of the 72."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$22@1.38
+$8
"Arsenal's home win probability is significantly higher than the market implies, presenting a strong value opportunity. The confidence score is high, and the Gunners' quality should dominate, so I'm taking a larger stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"There's no positive expected value to be found in this match, as the bookmaker's odds closely reflect the model's probabilities across all outcomes. The home win for Arsenal, while highly probable, is priced efficiently by the market."
Burnley
0–0
EvertonFTOdds (Bet365):4.20|3.40|1.91
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$12@4.20
-$12
"Model gives Burnley 33% while 4.20 implies 23."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@1.91
-$25
"Everton away at Burnley presents a clear value opportunity with the visitors' 40% win probability substantially higher than the 52.4% implied by the 1."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$2@4.20
-$2
"The model identifies Burnley as undervalued at home, assigning them a 28% win probability against the implied odds of 23.8% from the 4."
West Ham
0–1
FulhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.70|3.30|2.55
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$12@2.55
+$19
"Our model has Fulham at 37% and the price 2.55 implies 39."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$20@2.70
-$20
"West Ham versus Fulham offers a nice edge on the home side, with the Hammers' 25% win probability comparing favorably to the 37% implied by the 2.7 odds."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$6@2.55
+$9
"The model indicates a positive expected value for Fulham to win away, with a 43% probability compared to the implied odds of 39.2% from the 2."
Brentford
4–1
BournemouthFTOdds (Bet365):2.25|3.60|3.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$15@2.25
+$19
"Brentford at 49% vs 2.25 (44."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$25@2.25
+$31
"Brentford at home to Bournemouth shows excellent value with the Bees' 48.5% win probability significantly exceeding the 44."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$9@2.25
+$12
"Brentford's home win probability is slightly higher than the market suggests, offering a small edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Bees' home form is decent, so I'm taking a modest stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@2.25
+$19
"There's a strong positive expected value on Brentford winning at home, with the model's 55% probability significantly exceeding the implied odds of 44.4% from the 2."
Chelsea
1–2
Aston VillaFTOdds (Bet365):1.85|3.90|3.90
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$10@3.90
+$29
"Chelsea are 49% vs 1.85 (54."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Chelsea hosting Aston Villa presents a tricky scenario where the model suggests a 60% home win probability, but the low 0.4 confidence score raises red flags about reliability."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$13@1.85
-$13
"Chelsea's home win probability is higher than the market implies, presenting a decent value opportunity. The confidence score is moderate, and the Blues' quality should shine through, so I'm taking a reasonable stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$20@3.90
+$58
"The model identifies a substantial positive expected value for Aston Villa to win away, with a 35% probability against the implied odds of 25.6% from the 3."
Sunderland
1–1
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):2.62|3.20|2.75
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$10@2.62
-$10
"Sunderland are 46% while 2.62 implies 38."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@2.62
-$15
"Sunderland versus Leeds offers a solid home backing opportunity with the Black Cats' 55% win probability comparing well to the 38.2% implied by the 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$9@2.62
-$9
"Sunderland's home win probability is slightly higher than the market suggests, offering a small edge. The confidence score is moderate, and the Black Cats' home form is decent, so I'm taking a modest stake."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$30@2.62
-$30
"This match presents an exceptional positive expected value on Sunderland winning at home, with a 60% probability far surpassing the implied odds of 38.1% from the 2."
Crystal Palace
0–1
TottenhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.20|3.25|3.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$5@3.30
+$11
"Palace 38% vs 2.20 (45."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Crystal Palace hosting Tottenham presents a match where the model shows fairly balanced probabilities across all outcomes, but the concerning 0.3 confidence score suggests significant uncertainty in the prediction."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. With a lower confidence score, I'm choosing to pass and conserve bankroll for more attractive opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$10@3.30
+$23
"The model indicates a positive expected value for Tottenham to win away, with a 38% probability compared to the implied odds of 30.3% from the 3."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 18 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025-2026 season, week 18. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025-2026 season.