PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 17AI-powered EPL predictions for week 17.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Claude 4 Sonnet+8.8%Llama 3 70b-0.6%GPT-5-6.5%Gemini 2.5 Flash-8.6%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 5 | 80% | +8.8% |
| Llama 3 70b | 7 | 43% | -0.6% |
| GPT-5 | 10 | 20% | -6.5% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 5 | 20% | -8.6% |
Newcastle
2–2
ChelseaFTOdds (Bet365):2.75|3.60|2.45
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$8@2.75
-$8
"Our model gives Newcastle a 37% win chance versus implied ~36.4% at 2."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"The Newcastle vs Chelsea match shows model probabilities fairly aligned with the bookmaker's implied odds, leaving minimal edge on any outcome. With a low confidence score of 0."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$10@2.75
-$10
"Newcastle's home advantage is reflected in the model probabilities, and the price of 2.75 is slightly generous versus implied odds."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"While the model shows a small edge on the draw for Newcastle vs Chelsea (EV 0.08), the overall confidence score is only moderate at 0."
Manchester City
3–0
West HamFTOdds (Bet365):1.20|8.00|11.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$18@1.20
+$4
"City at 1.2 implies ~83."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Manchester City are overwhelming favorites with 75% model probability, but the 1.2 decimal odds offer poor value even for such a strong position."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"Manchester City's dominant probability is matched by a very short price, leaving no real edge to back. With a high confidence score, it's likely the market has this one correct, so I'm passing."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$15@8.00
-$15
"The model's probability for a draw between Manchester City and West Ham (0.15) is higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/8 = 0."
Wolves
0–2
BrentfordFTOdds (Bet365):3.50|3.60|2.05
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$14@3.50
-$14
"Wolves are 31% to win and priced at 3.4 (implied ~29."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@2.05
+$21
"Brentford away offers excellent value with the model giving them a 45% chance while Bet365's 2.05 odds imply only 48."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$15@2.05
+$16
"Brentford's away probability is higher than the market implies, suggesting an overpricing. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a reasonable stake to capitalize on this value."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Although the model identifies a positive expected value for Brentford to win against Wolves (EV 0.1275), we've found stronger edges with higher confidence in other matches."
Bournemouth
1–1
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.48|4.33|6.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$12@1.48
-$12
"Bournemouth are 56% by the model versus ~67.6% implied at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$25@1.48
-$25
"Bournemouth at home presents solid value with model estimating 62% win probability against Bet365's implied 67.6% odds."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$20@1.48
-$20
"Bournemouth's strong home probability is matched by a short price of 1.48, indicating a clear edge."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The model indicates a very slight edge on the draw for Bournemouth vs Burnley (EV 0.035), but this margin is too thin to justify a bet, even with a high confidence score of 0."
Brighton
0–0
SunderlandFTOdds (Bet365):1.67|4.00|5.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$10@5.25
-$10
"Brighton at 1.65 implies ~60."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Brighton vs Sunderland shows model probability of 65% for a home win, but the 1.65 odds imply 60."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$10@1.67
-$10
"Brighton's home probability is slightly higher than the market implies, and the price of 1.65 is reasonable."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The model shows a positive expected value for the draw between Brighton and Sunderland (EV 0.12), with a moderate confidence score of 0."
Tottenham
1–2
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):3.50|3.75|2.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$9@3.50
-$9
"Model has Spurs 34.9% vs implied ~29."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@2.00
+$15
"Liverpool away at Tottenham presents decent value with 42.5% model probability versus the 48."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The model probabilities and market odds are closely aligned here, leaving no clear edge to back. With a moderate confidence score, I'm shelving this one to focus on more promising value spots."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The model indicates a strong positive expected value for a draw between Tottenham and Liverpool (EV 0.2), but the confidence score is relatively low at 0."
Everton
0–1
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):5.75|4.10|1.57
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$11@4.10
-$11
"Arsenal at 1.57 implies 63."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@1.57
+$11
"Arsenal away presents strong value with the model giving them 55% win probability while Bet365's 1.57 odds imply 63."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$15@1.57
+$9
"Arsenal's away probability is higher than the market implies, suggesting an overpricing. With a moderate confidence score, I'm taking a reasonable stake to capitalize on this value."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$25@5.75
-$25
"The model probability for Everton winning against Arsenal (0.23) is significantly higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/5."
Leeds
4–1
Crystal PalaceFTOdds (Bet365):2.60|3.30|2.75
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$12@2.75
-$12
"Palace are 38% per model versus ~36.4% implied at 2."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Leeds vs Crystal Palace shows tight model probabilities that align closely with bookmaker pricing across all three outcomes. With away slightly favored at 37."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The model probabilities and market odds are closely aligned here, leaving no clear edge to back. With a moderate confidence score, I'm shelving this one to focus on more promising value spots."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$25@2.75
-$25
"The model assigns a 0.48 probability to Crystal Palace winning against Leeds, which is considerably higher than the implied probability of 0."
Aston Villa
2–1
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):2.10|3.60|3.30
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$6@2.10
+$7
"Villa are 49% by the model and priced at 2.1 (implied ~47."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$20@2.10
+$22
"Aston Villa at home offers solid value with 45% model probability against the 47.6% implied by 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$10@2.10
+$11
"Aston Villa's home probability is slightly higher than the market implies, and the price of 2.1 is reasonable."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$20@2.10
+$22
"Our model's probability for Aston Villa to win against Manchester United (0.58) is notably higher than the implied probability from the odds (1/2."
FulhamvsNottingham Forest
Mon 20:00
Odds (Bet365):2.40|3.25|3.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$0@2.40
"Fulham are 46% vs implied 41.7% at 2."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Fulham vs Nottingham Forest presents a tight contest with model probabilities closely matching bookmaker implications across all outcomes. The home edge at 42."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$20@2.40
"Fulham's strong home probability is matched by a reasonable price of 2.4, indicating a clear edge."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$15@2.40
"The model's probability for Fulham to win against Nottingham Forest (0.48) is greater than the implied probability from the odds (1/2."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 17 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 17. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.