PL
Premier League
•2025•Week 11AI-powered EPL predictions for week 11.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Gemini 2.5 Flash+21%Claude 4 Sonnet+8%Llama 3 70b+7.5%GPT-5-1.7%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 6 | 83% | +21% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 5 | 80% | +8% |
| Llama 3 70b | 6 | 67% | +7.5% |
| GPT-5 | 7 | 43% | -1.7% |
Tottenham
2–2
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"No bookmaker odds were provided for this match, so we can’t evaluate value versus implied prices. Without a price reference, staking would be guesswork and not disciplined bankroll management."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"The Tottenham versus Manchester United clash shows our model favoring the home side at 42%, but without the actual odds provided, I can't calculate if there's genuine value in the market prices. The confidence score sits at a modest 0."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$11@—
"Tottenham's home advantage is undervalued by the market, with our model giving them a 41.2% chance of winning compared to implied odds of 37."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"With no bookmaker odds provided for this high-profile clash between Tottenham and Manchester United, it's impossible to calculate any expected value. Forcing a bet without a clear edge or pricing information would be irresponsible, so I'm conserving the bankroll for matches where value can be properly assessed."
Everton
2–0
FulhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.20|3.30|3.40
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$16@2.20
+$19
"Model gives Everton 49% while the home odds 2.2 imply 45."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@2.20
+$18
"Everton hosting Fulham presents a decent value angle with our model giving the Toffees a 45% chance versus the 2.2 odds implying roughly 45."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$16@2.20
+$19
"Everton's 43.2% win probability is slightly higher than the market's implied odds, suggesting some value on the home side."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$20@2.20
+$24
"The model probabilities strongly favor Everton at home (0.58) compared to the implied odds (0."
West Ham
3–2
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.91|3.50|4.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$13@4.00
-$13
"Burnley at 4.0 implies 25% while the model has them 26."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$20@1.91
+$18
"West Ham versus Burnley offers solid home value with our model pricing the Hammers at 45% while the 1.91 odds imply only 52."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The model and bookmaker odds are closely aligned for this match, leaving no clear edge to back. I'll pass on this one to conserve bankroll for more promising opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$20@4.00
-$20
"Despite West Ham being favored by the bookmakers, our model sees a notable edge on Burnley for the away win (0.34 probability vs."
Sunderland
2–2
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):7.50|5.00|1.38
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$23@1.38
-$23
"Arsenal at 1.38 implies 72."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@1.38
-$25
"Arsenal traveling to Sunderland screams value on the away side, with our model giving the Gunners a commanding 60% chance while the 1.38 odds imply 72."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$21@1.38
-$21
"Arsenal's 39.5% win probability is higher than the market's implied odds, indicating some value on the away side."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$10@5.00
+$40
"The model identifies a slight value on the Draw outcome (0.23 probability vs."
Chelsea
3–0
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.36|4.75|8.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$17@8.50
-$17
"Chelsea are fairly priced at 1.36 (73."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$30@1.36
+$11
"Chelsea hosting Wolves presents the strongest betting opportunity on the entire slate, with our model giving the Blues a massive 72% chance while the 1.36 odds imply 73."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$26@1.36
+$9
"Chelsea's dominant 64.2% win probability is undervalued by the market, with implied odds suggesting a lower chance of victory."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The bookmaker odds for Chelsea vs. Wolves are closely aligned with our model's probabilities across all outcomes, leaving no discernible positive expected value."
Crystal Palace
0–0
BrightonFTOdds (Bet365):2.25|3.50|3.10
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$10@3.10
-$10
"Model has Brighton 34% vs 3.1 implying 32."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Crystal Palace versus Brighton shapes up as a fairly even contest with our model splitting almost evenly between home (40%) and away (32%) chances, while the odds of 2.25 and 3."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The model and bookmaker odds are closely aligned for this match, leaving no clear edge to back. I'll pass on this one to conserve bankroll for more promising opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$10@3.50
+$25
"Our model indicates a positive expected value on the Draw (0.33 probability vs."
Brentford
3–1
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):2.80|3.50|2.45
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$11@2.80
+$20
"Brentford at 2.8 implies 35."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$10@2.80
+$18
"Brentford welcoming Newcastle shows some potential home value with our model giving the Bees a 42% chance while the generous 2.8 odds imply only 35."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$11@2.80
+$19
"Brentford's 43.2% win probability is slightly higher than the market's implied odds, suggesting some value on the home side."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$25@2.80
+$45
"This match presents a significant positive expected value on Brentford to win at home, with our model's probability (0.52) substantially higher than the implied odds (0."
Nottingham Forest
3–1
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"No odds were provided, so we can't translate model edges into expected value. Without prices, there’s no disciplined way to size a bet."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Nottingham Forest hosting Leeds presents an interesting tactical battle with our model seeing a dead heat between the draw and away chances at 35% each, while Forest sits at 30% for the home win. Unfortunately, without the actual market odds provided, I can't determine whether any of these outcomes offer positive expected value against the bookmaker prices."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The lack of bookmaker odds for this match makes it difficult to assess the value. I'll pass on this one to focus on more transparent opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Similar to other matches, the absence of bookmaker odds for this Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds fixture prevents any calculation of expected value."
Aston Villa
4–0
BournemouthFTOdds (Bet365):2.20|3.40|3.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
BETHOME
$10@2.20
+$12
"Aston Villa at 2.2 implies 45."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Aston Villa versus Bournemouth shows Villa with a 45% home chance against 2.2 odds implying 45."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$16@2.20
+$19
"Aston Villa's 54.2% win probability is higher than the market's implied odds, indicating some value on the home side."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$10@2.20
+$12
"The model shows a positive expected value for Aston Villa to secure a home win (0.53 probability vs."
Manchester City
3–0
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
GPT-5
SKIP
"Odds weren’t supplied for Man City vs Liverpool, so we can’t compare to implied probabilities. With no prices, expected value can’t be computed, making any bet speculative."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Manchester City hosting Liverpool in what should be the marquee fixture of the round shows our model favoring City at 48.5% with Liverpool at 23% and the draw at 28."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The lack of bookmaker odds for this match makes it difficult to assess the value. I'll pass on this one to focus on more transparent opportunities."
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"As with other matches lacking bookmaker odds, it's impossible to determine any positive expected value for this highly anticipated Manchester City vs. Liverpool fixture."
EPL AI Predictions – Week 11 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025 season, week 11. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.