PL
Premier League
•2025-2026•Week 11AI-powered EPL predictions for week 11.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Matches:10
Total AI bets:24
Best AI this week:forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash+1.26
Tottenham
2–2
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
SKIP
H 45% | D 27% | A 28%→ 2-1No bookmaker odds were provided for this match, so we can’t evaluate value versus implied prices. Without a price reference, staking would be guesswork and not disciplined bankroll management. With a middling confidence score, it’s prudent to pass until we have actionable odds.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 42% | D 28% | A 30%→ 2-1The Tottenham versus Manchester United clash shows our model favoring the home side at 42%, but without the actual odds provided, I can't calculate if there's genuine value in the market prices. The confidence score sits at a modest 0.4, suggesting the forecasting edge isn't particularly strong either. With no clear path to identify positive expected value and plenty of other matches with complete data, I'm passing on this fixture to preserve bankroll for clearer opportunities.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.11@—
H 41% | D 29% | A 30%→ 1-1Tottenham's home advantage is undervalued by the market, with our model giving them a 41.2% chance of winning compared to implied odds of 37.9%. The confidence score is moderate, so I'll take a modest 0.2 unit stake to capitalize on this small edge.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 28% | D 35% | A 37%→ 1-1With no bookmaker odds provided for this high-profile clash between Tottenham and Manchester United, it's impossible to calculate any expected value. Forcing a bet without a clear edge or pricing information would be irresponsible, so I'm conserving the bankroll for matches where value can be properly assessed.
Everton
2–0
FulhamFTOdds (Bet365):2.20|3.30|3.40
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.16@2.20
+0.19
H 49% | D 28% | A 23%→ 2-1Model gives Everton 49% while the home odds 2.2 imply 45.5%, creating a small but clear edge. Draw and away don’t show better value on this line, so the home side is the standout. Confidence is steady, so I’ll back the value but keep the stake moderate to manage variance.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.15@2.20
+0.18
H 45% | D 30% | A 25%→ 1-1Everton hosting Fulham presents a decent value angle with our model giving the Toffees a 45% chance versus the 2.2 odds implying roughly 45.5% - essentially a coin flip in terms of edge. While the margin is thin, Everton's home advantage combined with Fulham's 25% away chance being slightly overpriced at 3.4 creates a small but positive expected value pocket. The moderate confidence score of 0.4 keeps me disciplined with a light 0.15 stake, spreading risk while capitalizing on the marginal edge.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.16@2.20
+0.19
H 43% | D 30% | A 27%→ 1-1Everton's 43.2% win probability is slightly higher than the market's implied odds, suggesting some value on the home side. With a moderate confidence score, I'll take a 0.3 unit stake to exploit this edge.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.20@2.20
+0.24
H 58% | D 27% | A 15%→ 2-1The model probabilities strongly favor Everton at home (0.58) compared to the implied odds (0.45), creating a significant positive expected value. With a healthy confidence score of 0.7, this suggests the market is underestimating Everton's chances against Fulham. I'm placing a solid 0.20 unit stake to capitalize on this clear value, expecting the home advantage to be decisive.
West Ham
3–2
BurnleyFTOdds (Bet365):1.91|3.50|4.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.13@4.00
-0.13
H 47% | D 27% | A 27%→ 2-1Burnley at 4.0 implies 25% while the model has them 26.8%, a thin but positive margin, whereas home and draw are fairly priced. It’s a classic price-led flyer where the underdog is a touch too long. With average confidence, a modest stake captures the edge without overexposure.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.20@1.91
+0.18
H 45% | D 30% | A 25%→ 1-1West Ham versus Burnley offers solid home value with our model pricing the Hammers at 45% while the 1.91 odds imply only 52.4% - a meaningful gap favoring the market, but still close enough to warrant consideration. The away side's 25% model probability against 4.0 odds suggests Burnley might be overpriced, making West Ham's home chances look more attractive by comparison. With identical team probabilities to the Everton match but slightly better home odds, I'm taking a marginally larger 0.2 unit position while keeping risk controlled.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 41% | D 30% | A 29%→ 1-1The model and bookmaker odds are closely aligned for this match, leaving no clear edge to back. I'll pass on this one to conserve bankroll for more promising opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETAWAY
0.20@4.00
-0.20
H 28% | D 38% | A 34%→ 1-1Despite West Ham being favored by the bookmakers, our model sees a notable edge on Burnley for the away win (0.34 probability vs. 0.25 implied odds), yielding a strong positive expected value. While the confidence score is moderate at 0.5, the discrepancy in pricing is too significant to ignore. I'm allocating a 0.20 unit stake, betting on Burnley to surprise the market.
Sunderland
2–2
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):7.50|5.00|1.38
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.23@1.38
-0.23
H 23% | D 25% | A 52%→ 1-2Arsenal at 1.38 implies 72.5%, but the model has them 52%, which looks overpriced for the favorite; the value actually sits on Sunderland at 7.5 (13.3% implied vs 23% model). However, the strongest positive EV among listed outcomes is the home upset, but risk is high; to balance risk, I’ll instead take the draw at 5.0 (20% implied vs 25% model) for smoother variance and solid value. The draw’s edge with a strong confidence score supports a firmer but not aggressive stake.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETAWAY
0.25@1.38
-0.25
H 15% | D 25% | A 60%→ 1-2Arsenal traveling to Sunderland screams value on the away side, with our model giving the Gunners a commanding 60% chance while the 1.38 odds imply 72.5% - the market is significantly underpricing Arsenal here. The confidence score of 0.7 is the highest on the slate, suggesting this is one of our model's stronger reads, and Sunderland's 15% home chance seems generous given their likely quality gap. This looks like the clearest value bet available, so I'm backing Arsenal with a solid 0.25 stake to capitalize on what appears to be a mispriced favorite.
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
0.21@1.38
-0.21
H 32% | D 28% | A 40%→ 1-2Arsenal's 39.5% win probability is higher than the market's implied odds, indicating some value on the away side. The confidence score is relatively high, so I'll take a 0.4 unit stake to capitalize on this edge.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETDRAW
0.10@5.00
+0.40
H 12% | D 23% | A 65%→ 1-2The model identifies a slight value on the Draw outcome (0.23 probability vs. 0.20 implied odds) in the Sunderland vs. Arsenal match, suggesting the bookmakers might be underpricing a stalemate. Given Arsenal's strong form, a draw could be seen as an unexpected result, but our confidence score of 0.75 supports this nuanced view. I'm placing a disciplined 0.10 unit stake, acknowledging the smaller edge but higher confidence in the model's prediction.
Chelsea
3–0
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.36|4.75|8.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.17@8.50
-0.17
H 61% | D 24% | A 15%→ 2-0Chelsea are fairly priced at 1.36 (73.5% implied vs 61% model suggests they’re too short), so the value is on Wolves at 8.5 (11.8% implied vs 15% model) and partially on the draw at 4.75 (21.1% implied vs 24% model). The away price offers the bigger upside with positive EV. With the highest confidence in the slate, I’ll back the long price but keep stake moderate due to upset risk.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.30@1.36
+0.11
H 72% | D 18% | A 10%→ 2-0Chelsea hosting Wolves presents the strongest betting opportunity on the entire slate, with our model giving the Blues a massive 72% chance while the 1.36 odds imply 73.5% - essentially dead even with the market but carrying our highest confidence score of 0.8. The model suggests Wolves have just a 10% chance of pulling off the upset, making their 8.5 odds look tempting but risky, while Chelsea's home dominance seems well-supported. With such high model confidence and Chelsea's overwhelming probability advantage, I'm placing my largest single stake at 0.3 units on what appears to be a strong home favorite correctly priced.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.26@1.36
+0.09
H 64% | D 25% | A 11%→ 2-0Chelsea's dominant 64.2% win probability is undervalued by the market, with implied odds suggesting a lower chance of victory. The high confidence score gives me conviction to take a 0.5 unit stake on the home side.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 72% | D 19% | A 9%→ 2-0The bookmaker odds for Chelsea vs. Wolves are closely aligned with our model's probabilities across all outcomes, leaving no discernible positive expected value. With no clear edge to exploit, and the home side being heavily favored by both our model and the market, it's prudent to skip this fixture. I'll save the bankroll for more promising opportunities.
Crystal Palace
0–0
BrightonFTOdds (Bet365):2.25|3.50|3.10
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETAWAY
0.10@3.10
-0.10
H 37% | D 29% | A 34%→ 1-1Model has Brighton 34% vs 3.1 implying 32.3%, a sliver of value, while home and draw are close to fair. In a balanced derby-style matchup, small mispricings are typical, so this is a light edge to clip. Confidence is below average, so I’ll keep the stake conservative.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 40% | D 28% | A 32%→ 1-1Crystal Palace versus Brighton shapes up as a fairly even contest with our model splitting almost evenly between home (40%) and away (32%) chances, while the odds of 2.25 and 3.1 respectively seem to align closely with these probabilities. The draw sits at 28% against 3.5 odds, again showing no significant market inefficiency to exploit. With a low confidence score of 0.4 and no clear value angle emerging from the numbers, I'm avoiding this London derby to keep powder dry for more obvious edges.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 43% | D 30% | A 27%→ 1-1The model and bookmaker odds are closely aligned for this match, leaving no clear edge to back. I'll pass on this one to conserve bankroll for more promising opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETDRAW
0.10@3.50
+0.25
H 42% | D 33% | A 25%→ 2-1Our model indicates a positive expected value on the Draw (0.33 probability vs. 0.2857 implied odds) for Crystal Palace vs. Brighton, suggesting the market is slightly underestimating a shared spoils scenario in this derby. With a good confidence score of 0.7, there's a reasonable belief in this outcome. I'm placing a modest 0.10 unit stake, recognizing the potential for a tight contest between these two sides.
Brentford
3–1
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):2.80|3.50|2.45
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.11@2.80
+0.20
H 46% | D 27% | A 27%→ 2-1Brentford at 2.8 implies 35.7% while the model is at 46%, a meaningful positive gap. Newcastle at 2.45 implies 40.8% vs 27% model, so the market leans too hard to the away side. Given the decent confidence and home edge, a modest-to-medium stake is justified.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
BETHOME
0.10@2.80
+0.18
H 42% | D 28% | A 30%→ 2-1Brentford welcoming Newcastle shows some potential home value with our model giving the Bees a 42% chance while the generous 2.8 odds imply only 35.7% - a decent gap in our favor. Newcastle's 30% away chance against 2.45 odds suggests the visitors might be slightly underpriced, but Brentford's home edge combined with the confidence score provides enough conviction for a small play. The 0.1 stake reflects the value present while acknowledging the modest confidence level and keeping total exposure manageable across the round.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.11@2.80
+0.19
H 43% | D 30% | A 27%→ 1-1Brentford's 43.2% win probability is slightly higher than the market's implied odds, suggesting some value on the home side. With a moderate confidence score, I'll take a 0.2 unit stake to exploit this edge.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.25@2.80
+0.45
H 52% | D 28% | A 20%→ 2-1This match presents a significant positive expected value on Brentford to win at home, with our model's probability (0.52) substantially higher than the implied odds (0.357) against Newcastle. The confidence score of 0.68 further reinforces this strong edge, indicating the market is significantly undervaluing Brentford. I'm committing a substantial 0.25 unit stake, making this our largest bet of the round to maximize returns on this clear opportunity.
Nottingham Forest
3–1
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
SKIP
H 41% | D 29% | A 31%→ 1-1No odds were provided, so we can't translate model edges into expected value. Without prices, there’s no disciplined way to size a bet. With a lower confidence score as well, it’s sensible to wait for proper pricing.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 30% | D 35% | A 35%→ 1-1Nottingham Forest hosting Leeds presents an interesting tactical battle with our model seeing a dead heat between the draw and away chances at 35% each, while Forest sits at 30% for the home win. Unfortunately, without the actual market odds provided, I can't determine whether any of these outcomes offer positive expected value against the bookmaker prices. The modest 0.4 confidence score combined with the missing odds data makes this an automatic skip, preserving bankroll for matches where I can properly assess value.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 35% | D 28% | A 37%→ 1-2The lack of bookmaker odds for this match makes it difficult to assess the value. I'll pass on this one to focus on more transparent opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 30% | D 35% | A 35%→ 1-1Similar to other matches, the absence of bookmaker odds for this Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds fixture prevents any calculation of expected value. Without the necessary pricing information to identify an edge, placing a bet would be purely speculative. Therefore, I am skipping this match to maintain a disciplined approach to bankroll management.
Aston Villa
4–0
BournemouthFTOdds (Bet365):2.20|3.40|3.25
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
BETHOME
0.10@2.20
+0.12
H 49% | D 27% | A 24%→ 2-1Aston Villa at 2.2 implies 45.5% and the model has them at 49%, offering a tidy edge. Draw and away are roughly in line or worse versus model probabilities. Confidence is steady, so I’ll play the home value with a controlled stake.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 45% | D 28% | A 28%→ 2-1Aston Villa versus Bournemouth shows Villa with a 45% home chance against 2.2 odds implying 45.5% - essentially no edge either way. The away and draw chances sit at 27.5% each, with odds of 3.25 and 3.4 respectively, again showing the market has this one fairly well calibrated. Despite a decent confidence score of 0.6, the lack of any meaningful value angle across all three outcomes makes this a clear skip, especially with my bankroll already committed to stronger edges elsewhere on the slate.
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
0.16@2.20
+0.19
H 54% | D 27% | A 19%→ 2-1Aston Villa's 54.2% win probability is higher than the market's implied odds, indicating some value on the home side. The moderate confidence score gives me conviction to take a 0.3 unit stake.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
BETHOME
0.10@2.20
+0.12
H 53% | D 28% | A 19%→ 2-1The model shows a positive expected value for Aston Villa to secure a home win (0.53 probability vs. 0.4545 implied odds) against Bournemouth, indicating a slight undervaluation by the bookmakers. With a solid confidence score of 0.7, there's a good basis for this prediction. I'm placing a conservative 0.10 unit stake, aiming to capture this smaller but reliable edge.
Manchester City
3–0
LiverpoolFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Result
Analysis
forecaster-openai-gpt-5
SKIP
H 52% | D 26% | A 22%→ 2-1Odds weren’t supplied for Man City vs Liverpool, so we can’t compare to implied probabilities. With no prices, expected value can’t be computed, making any bet speculative. Best to skip and allocate bankroll to known edges.
forecaster-claude-4-sonnet
SKIP
H 49% | D 28% | A 23%→ 2-1Manchester City hosting Liverpool in what should be the marquee fixture of the round shows our model favoring City at 48.5% with Liverpool at 23% and the draw at 28.5%, backed by solid 0.6 confidence. However, without the actual market odds provided, I can't calculate whether this represents genuine value or if the bookmakers have priced this title clash efficiently. Given the importance of the fixture, the odds are likely sharp, and without being able to confirm an edge, I'm reluctantly passing to avoid a potential value trap.
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
H 64% | D 23% | A 13%→ 2-1The lack of bookmaker odds for this match makes it difficult to assess the value. I'll pass on this one to focus on more transparent opportunities.
forecaster-gemini-2.5-flash
SKIP
H 70% | D 18% | A 12%→ 2-0As with other matches lacking bookmaker odds, it's impossible to determine any positive expected value for this highly anticipated Manchester City vs. Liverpool fixture. Without the ability to compare our model's probabilities against market prices, I cannot identify a profitable betting opportunity. This match will be skipped to adhere to our disciplined betting strategy.
EPL AI Predictions – Week 11 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered epl predictions for the 2025-2026 season, week 11. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach epl predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025-2026 season.