PR
PREMIER%20LEAGUE
•2025•Week 10AI-powered PREMIER%20LEAGUE predictions for week 10.
Every week, each AI model is given $100 and must be on at least 4 matches.
See which AI models would bet, how much they would stake, and why.
Week ROI
Llama 3 70b+6.8%Claude 4 Sonnet+5.5%GPT-5-1.4%Gemini 2.5 Flash-12.3%
| Model | Bets | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llama 3 70b | 6 | 67% | +6.8% |
| Claude 4 Sonnet | 6 | 67% | +5.5% |
| GPT-5 | 8 | 38% | -1.4% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | 8 | 0% | -12.3% |
Fulham
3–0
WolvesFTOdds (Bet365):1.83|3.50|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$3@4.50
-$3
"The model identifies a slight edge on Wolves to win away from home, with their 24% probability being undervalued by the 4.5 decimal odds."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$14@3.50
-$14
"Our model has the draw at 28.3% versus implied 28."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$15@1.83
+$12
"The model gives Fulham a 48.5% chance of winning at home against Wolves, which translates to implied odds of around 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$12@1.83
+$10
"Fulham's home advantage is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 1.83 are slightly generous compared to the implied probability."
Brighton
3–0
LeedsFTOdds (Bet365):1.85|3.75|4.00
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$2@3.75
-$2
"The model suggests a small positive expected value on the draw outcome for Brighton vs Leeds, with the 28% probability slightly exceeding the implied odds from 3.75."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$16@1.85
+$14
"Brighton are priced at 1.85 (implied 54."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$20@1.85
+$17
"Brighton at home shows similar fundamentals to the Fulham match, with the model favoring the home side at 48.5% against Leeds' 23."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$18@1.85
+$15
"Brighton's strong home form is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 1.85 are slightly undervaluing their chances."
Burnley
0–2
ArsenalFTOdds (Bet365):10.00|6.00|1.27
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$22@10.00
-$22
"Despite Arsenal being strong favorites, the model sees a significant positive expected value for a Burnley home win, with their 15% probability at 10.0 odds."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$15@6.00
-$15
"Arsenal are correctly short with a 60% model chance vs 78.7% implied at 1."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$25@1.27
+$7
"Arsenal away at 63% probability versus 1.27 odds creates a strong value proposition, as the model implies Arsenal should be around 1."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. The confidence score is moderate, but I'm not convinced enough to take a position, especially with Arsenal's strong away form."
Crystal Palace
2–0
BrentfordFTOdds (Bet365):1.91|3.60|3.90
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$7@3.60
-$7
"The probabilities indicate a notable positive expected value for a draw between Crystal Palace and Brentford, with the 33% chance being well-priced at 3.6 odds."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$13@3.90
-$13
"Palace at 1.91 implies 52."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Crystal Palace versus Brentford appears fairly priced across all three outcomes when comparing the model probabilities to the bookmaker odds. The confidence score of 0."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The probabilities and odds are closely aligned, leaving no clear edge to back. The confidence score is moderate, but I'm not convinced enough to take a position, especially with Brentford's solid away form."
Nottingham Forest
2–2
Manchester UnitedFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"The necessary bookmaker odds for Nottingham Forest versus Manchester United were not provided in the data. Without these crucial figures, it's impossible to calculate any expected value or identify a betting edge."
GPT-5
SKIP
"No odds are provided for this match, so there’s no way to validate value against implied probabilities. Without prices, any stake would be speculative rather than edge-driven."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"While the model shows Manchester United as slight favorites away at Nottingham Forest with 50% probability and decent confidence at 0.7, the missing odds data prevents any value assessment."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The odds are not provided, so I'm unable to assess the value. I'll skip this match to focus on clearer opportunities."
Tottenham
0–1
ChelseaFTOdds (Bet365):2.70|3.50|2.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$2@2.70
-$2
"The model indicates a marginal positive expected value for Tottenham to win at home against Chelsea, with their 40% probability slightly outperforming the 2.7 odds."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$17@2.70
-$17
"Tottenham at 2.7 implies 37."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$15@2.50
+$22
"The North London derby sees Chelsea as slight underdogs at 2.5 odds, but the model gives them a 34% chance which implies they should be around 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$24@2.50
+$35
"Chelsea's strong away form is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 2.5 are slightly undervaluing their chances."
Liverpool
2–0
Aston VillaFTOdds (Bet365):1.65|4.33|4.50
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETAWAY
$20@4.50
-$20
"The model identifies a substantial positive expected value for Aston Villa to secure an away win against Liverpool, with their 35% probability being significantly undervalued at 4.5 odds."
GPT-5
BETAWAY
$11@4.50
-$11
"Liverpool at 1.65 implies 60."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Liverpool at home against Aston Villa shows the Reds favored at 45% probability, but their 1.65 odds suggest the market sees them as stronger favorites than the model does."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$18@1.65
+$11
"Liverpool's strong home form is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 1.65 are slightly generous compared to the implied probability."
West Ham
3–1
NewcastleFTOdds (Bet365):5.25|4.00|1.62
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETDRAW
$8@4.00
-$8
"The model points to a good positive expected value for a draw between West Ham and Newcastle, with the 30% probability being well-represented by the 4.0 odds."
GPT-5
BETHOME
$7@5.25
+$30
"Newcastle at 1.62 implies 61."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETAWAY
$20@1.62
-$20
"Newcastle away at West Ham presents excellent value with the model giving the Magpies a 40% chance at 1.62 odds, when 40% probability should translate to around 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETAWAY
$12@1.62
-$12
"Newcastle's strong away form is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 1.62 are slightly undervaluing their chances."
Manchester City
3–1
BournemouthFTOdds (Bet365):—|—|—
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
SKIP
"Similar to another match in this round, the bookmaker odds for Manchester City versus Bournemouth were not available in the provided dataset. Without the odds, it is impossible to perform the necessary calculations to determine expected value or identify any betting opportunities."
GPT-5
SKIP
"There are no bookmaker odds provided, so we cannot convert to implied probabilities or measure value. Without a price, we can’t responsibly assess expected return."
Claude 4 Sonnet
SKIP
"Manchester City hosting Bournemouth shows the model heavily favoring City at 65% probability with solid 0.6 confidence, but without odds data there's no way to assess value."
Llama 3 70b
SKIP
"The odds are not provided, so I'm unable to assess the value. I'll skip this match to focus on clearer opportunities."
Sunderland
1–1
EvertonFTOdds (Bet365):2.70|3.20|2.70
Model
Action
Stake / Odds
Amount wagered @ decimal odds
Win = stake × (odds − 1)
Loss = stake lost
Result
Reasoning
Gemini 2.5 Flash
BETHOME
$34@2.70
-$34
"The model shows a very strong positive expected value for Sunderland to win at home against Everton, with their 65% probability being significantly undervalued at 2.7 odds."
GPT-5
BETDRAW
$7@3.20
+$15
"Sunderland and Everton are both 2.7 for win (implied 37%), but the model has them at 46% and 26% respectively—home price might be tempting but the market shape plus uncertainty suggests caution."
Claude 4 Sonnet
BETHOME
$5@2.70
-$5
"Sunderland at home shows a 45% probability against Everton's 27%, with the home odds at 2.7 providing modest value versus the model's implied 2."
Llama 3 70b
BETHOME
$18@2.70
-$18
"Sunderland's strong home form is reflected in the model's probabilities, and the odds of 2.7 are slightly undervaluing their chances."
PREMIER%20LEAGUE AI Predictions – Week 10 Analysis
This page shows AI-powered Premier%20League predictions for the 2025 season, week 10. Multiple large language models analyze the same set of team statistics, recent form, expected goals (xG), and historical results to estimate match outcome probabilities.
Unlike traditional prediction sites, these AI models do not place real bets. Instead, they simulate betting decisions using a virtual bankroll and closing odds from Bet365. This allows users to compare how different AI systems approach Premier%20League predictions, risk management, and value selection across the entire 2025 season.